Wednesday 1 May 2013

Ed Miliband - peeing in his own shoe

"Whereof one cannot speak", goes Wittgenstein's well-known phrase or saying, "thereof one must remain silent".

This gnomic utterance has been taken to heart by Ed Miliband, who refused repeatedly on The World At One to confirm that his party's proposed VAT cut would lead to increased borrowing.  Hats off to Martha Kearney for persisting.  Eight times, apparently, she asked.

How Labour must wish it had got the other Miliband instead.  In a close race Ed was installed ahead of David by virtue of Trade Union block votes.  (I am reading Tony Blair's biography at the moment, and in it he states that the Unions were the only party donors he came across whilst in office who explicitly demanded policy changes in exchange for their money).

Ed Miliband has admitted he made a mistake.  Not that the policy was a mistake, you understand, just the refusal to answer the question.  According to the Guardian, he said he had declined to admit to the borrowing because "I suppose I felt it was rather a commonplace".  His aides said he had just been through an "emotionally charged" question and answer session on Newcastle under Lyme high street.

I had not previously thought to see the words "emotionally charged" in the same sentence as that particular Midlands town.

But how about the policy?  Yes, a temporary VAT cut would do something to stimulate economic growth, but at a cost of about £12 billion a year, money that would not just cost extra in interest rates but also push up the interest rates on the rest of the new borrowing Britain would have to do.  And when the year was over, would the fundamentals have changed?  Not one jot.

Moreover it's worth considering that the Bank of England has indirectly injected nearly £400 billion into the UK economy by way of QE.  Did that kick-start the economy into urgent life again?  Not as far as you'd notice.  The effect of Miliband's £12 bn tax cut would be tiny.

The British economy will struggle to grow just as long as the Eurozone limps onwards.  Even now there are signs that recession is creeping from the periphery to the core.  Temporary VAT cuts won't alter that.

Here's another well-known phrase or saying for Ed Miliband to ponder.  Well-known in Iceland at any rate.

"Peeing in your own shoe won't keep your foot warm for long".