Thursday 18 July 2013

Wrong sort of growth redux

So the economy is growing again.  And, having spent the last couple of years predicting that the Chancellor would never get any growth unless he changed tack, the usual suspects - BBC, Grauniad, even the Torygraph - are pointing out now that it's the wrong sort of growth. 

The doomsayers are partly correct. What we need are investment and exports rather than consumption and borrowing.  But there are four things to say about that.  

Firstly, when it becomes clear that an economy is going into recession, people tend to rein in their spending, cementing the downturn in place.  But the reverse is also true.  To some extent the economy is now growing because people think it is starting to grow again.  It's better than nothing.

Secondly, the Government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes have scarcely had time to have a massive impact.  I think they're a mistake - particularly Help to Buy - but I don't think they will have done much to foster growth thus far.

Thirdly, even the wrong kind of growth can have a knock on effect which is beneficial to the economy.  It might, for example encourage companies sitting on huge profits to start investing again.

Lastly, the Chancellor's critics need sorting into two piles.  On the virtuous side, pundits like Jeff Randall and Jeremy Warner in the Torygraph were pointing out that Gordon Brown's growth was unsustainable years ago. At least they were consistent. But where was Robert Peston during the Brown glory years? Where was Stephanie Flanders? I don't remember anyone on the Centre Left apart from Larry Elliott in the Graun (and me, as long ago as 2004!) pointing out that the emperor had no clothes.  

The critics weren't just wrong about Osborne's success.  They were wrong about Brown's failure too.