"The electorate selects a Labour government to push the nation down the road of progress", writes Philip Collins in the Times today.
Ah, the P word. A section of political thought describes itself with a self-approbatory adjective, and rests self-satisfied on its intellectual laurels. So far, so tendentious.
But what's this? Collins continues, "That effort inevitably leads to an excess of public spending . . . (the electorate) call on the Conservative Party to tidy up".
An admission. Crikey. A fascinating insight into the mental world of a Social Democrat, occasionally called to serve as speechwriter at Tony Blair's table.
Mr Collins is too complacent. Whilst UK's debt to GDP ratio fell consistently from the highs of WWII, it began to rise again with Gordon Brown's spending spree, doubling from about 30% in 2002 to 60% by the time the coalition government came into office in 2010. Since then HMG has struggled to deal with the aftermath of the 2008 crash, bearing down on public spending to restore some order to the public finances.
Labour meanwhile has tried to have it both ways, criticising the Tories for cuts as well as for borrowing too much money.
The worm in Mr Collins' bud is that, although now marginally falling, debt to GDP is now wobbling between 80 and 90% of GDP. It has tripled in 15 years. It would be astonishing if the ratio had dipped significantly by the time this Parliament limps to an end.
Thus it is overwhelmingly likely that the next Labour government will take office with a background of vastly higher existing debt levels than at any time since the 1960s.
I wonder where Mr Collins thinks a Corbyn/McDonnell government would leave Britain's fiscal position?
The reality is that the cosy dualism Collins describes is broken. The Tories have struggled to restore the public finances in an age of low inflation. Public services are undoubtedly suffering (although when we are still borrowing £1bn every week just to stay afloat that's hardly austerity - profligacy lite anyone?). An incoming Labour government will ratchet up spending still further.
A crunch is coming. The public's expectation of decent public services is meeting economic reality. The Social Democratic dream is over. Britain is going to look very different when the progressives wake up.
