Let's get one thing straight about the furore concerning electoral over-spending by the Leave campaign. If anyone has broken the law they should be prosecuted.
Now, let's consider the impact on the legitimacy of the Brexit vote. A chorus of Remainers in the press and on social media have said that the process is thus flawed and there must be a re-run.
They would, wouldn't they?
Leave's margin of victory was nearly 8%. (Don't be fooled by the people who tell you it was 4% because 52 minus 48 is 4; 52 is about 8% bigger than 48). That's a substantial majority. It's hard to see that a bit less spending by Leave would have made much difference. Besides, since the accusation against Vote Leave was that effectively they controlled the organisation which spent the money, even if they didn't spend it themselves it's evident that BeLeave, the other organisation, would have spent it promoting the Leave campaign in any event.
Thus the nub of the accusation is that money was spent the way that Vote Leave wanted, rather than the way BeLeave would have spent it if left to their own devices. Not much of a charge. Not much of a difference.
Now let's look at the overall spending figures. According to the Electoral Commission, the Leave side spent £13.4 million on their campaign. Remain on the other hand spent £19 million. In other words, Remain got to spend half as much again on the campaign as Leave did. And moreover the Tory Government spent £9 million (of taxpayers' money) sending a pro-Remain leaflet to every household in the land. Thus the total spending on behalf of Remain in the months leading up to June 16 was nearer £28 million.
In other words, according to official figures, the Remain campaign spent more than twice the amount Leave did.
And Leave still won by a margin of 8%.
Remain zealots should take their re-run and shove it somewhere dark.
