Thursday 12 July 2018

Brexit reflections #21 - the consequences of the Chequers agreement - Mrs May's massive gamble

It's pretty common currency amongst those of a Leave persuasion that Mrs May's Chequers agreement, the proposal the Cabinet has agreed as a blueprint from a deal with the EU and which prompted the resignation of Johnson, David Davis and others, is a pallid version of what Brexit should look like.

It will prevent the UK doing good trade deals with other countries, and ties the UK by treaty to something called the Common Rule Book, not the least of whose off-putting qualities is that the weasel-word Common, with its homely reminders of having something in common, of a common purpose, of the Common Prayer Book, is merely a fig-leaf for the reality that it will be the EU rule book we abide by, something we must swallow whole or not at all, and something which we will be powerless to influence.

The usual response from Remainers is, "Why haven't you come up with an alternative?", which would be respectable were it not for the fact that the Government has been bombarded with competing and alternative suggestions from Cabinet members (remember Max Fac?), politicians and think-tanks.

We also often get "But the EU won't agree to anything else", as if a refusal in negotiations is to be taken seriously as anything other than a first response.

The Government has made a terrible hash of these negotiations.  First, it agreed to talk money before trade.  Secondly, it agreed (or at least it is behaving as if it agreed - the document actually reads differently) a backstop position in Ireland which is said to tie its hands.  Thirdly, it didn't prepare for No Deal.  Fourthly, it set out an opening negotiating position which was weak to start with and will only become more diluted as time passes.

The Remainers running this process from the PM downwards have weakened Brexit to the point that it no longer resembles what many Leave voters thought they were voting for.  Hell, it even crosses the PM's own red lines, since no country which has its border regulations tied - without influence - to another trading bloc can be said to control its borders and laws.

No doubt Mrs May feels that the softest possible Brexit is required to avoid economic damage; and she is not doing this for fun, but for what she considers to be the benefit of her country.  She is forgetting one very awkward fact.

Most Tory voters are pro-Leave.  

Most of them will feel betrayed by the Chequers agreement, even if it is swallowed whole by the EU.  Many of them will feel thoroughly screwed by their own party.

Now fast forward to 2022.  There will be another general election.  What chance do the Tories stand of a majority when they have spent most of the previous five years sticking two fingers up to their own natural supporters?

Not much, I would say.  I'm not the only centre-right voter to fear that even if Mrs May is right that her soft Brexit is best for Britain economically (but she doesn't know, and personally I think she's wrong), the damage of a harder Brexit would pale into insignificance beside the damage done by a Government led by Jeremy Corbyn.

Whether Tory voters would risk such a calamity must be in doubt.  But Mrs May is taking a massive gamble.  And for what?