Yes, it really did feel like 1997 again, that glad confident
morning when it was bliss for my 38 year old self to be a Blairite.
But actually, this was better than 1997. Then, it was only the riddance of a
superannuated Tory government; this time there was Brexit too. Then there was only Portillo to crow over; this
time legions of the smug and traitorous lost their seats.
I have found 2019 an agony, as first Parliament blocked Mrs
May’s deal and then undertook a war of attrition to stop Boris Johnson in his
tracks. The obvious perversion of the
constitution by the Speaker (allowing MPs to take control of the order paper),
by MPs themselves (initiating and passing legislation) and by the Supreme Court
(inventing law ex nihilo) infused me
with a deep, cold anger. The Remain
Ultras, people like Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Anna Soubry, were contemptuous
of democracy. The electorate may have
voted for Brexit, they said, but they were mistaken; the people who knew better
needed to make this decision for them.
I knew they had lost their minds because they could not see
how damaging this was to the principle of loser’s consent, one of the
cornerstones on which democracy rests.
They could not see how it made them look. But it was their undoing, which I’ll show in
a moment.
Over all this the BBC presided regally, losing no opportunity
to remind its audience that the EU would never open the withdrawal agreement,
that the backstop was an insuperable problem and that Boris was a liar, a chancer
and an incompetent buffoon.
I predicted repeatedly that if Labour blocked Mrs May, then
the Tories would elect Johnson as leader (and that if Johnson was blocked we
would somehow end up with Farage, a foretaste of which took place in May’s Euro
elections which the Brexit party handsomely won). I also knew that it was madness to rule out
no deal.
May duly went.
Johnson won the leadership with a landslide. And then a new deal. And now the election.
Ah, the election. When
it was called I felt a certain resignation.
If the Tories lost, this was surely game over for Brexit. I thought the most likely outcome a modest
Tory majority – twenty or thirty seats – but as the campaign went on and the
polls narrowed a hung parliament seemed unavoidable. So I was surprised as anyone by the result.
Why did Labour lose so heavily? Partly because they blocked Brexit. Partly because Corbyn has repeatedly
consorted with terrorists. Partly
because he is anti-Semitic personally.
Partly because he is a security risk and gives the impression of hating
his own country. Partly because of
Labour’s ludicrous welfare promises, which took voters for fools by pretending
that it was all affordable if only a few affluent voters paid a bit more tax.
But there is a more subtle point however, which is this.
I can see why poorer working class voters might see that
Corbyn’s Labour had something to offer them economically
(the traditional Labour offer - more generous welfarism, as opposed to the Tory
offer – a flourishing economy and lower migration). But I can’t see how Labour had anything to
offer them culturally. Labour is now a party whose ethos is that of
the educated urban middle-class. Direct
contact with the less fortunate in their own cities and outside is for those
people a rarity. Where they have
understood at all that others do not share their tastes in the matter of diet,
dress, gender, leisure pursuits, patriotism and willingness to be offended,
they often view this diversity (that’s real diversity, as opposed to having a
brown face and the same opinions) with distaste and revulsion. The modern Labour party, led by people like
Corbyn, Starmer, McDonnell, Milne and Thornberry, is not just a metrocentric
party (though it is – look at the new electoral map); it is a specifically London metrocentric party. Its connection with its traditional support
base is geographically tenuous and culturally skin deep.
The bad news for Labour, even if it can grasp this essential
point, is that when you’ve voted Tory once you can’t go back to being someone
who’s never voted Tory. It’s as hard as
going back to being a virgin.
Thus far, Labour shows no sign of the self-awareness
required to deal with its new situation.
Not surprising of the leadership perhaps, unwilling to take responsibility
for their own nature. But lower in the
ranks the tone has been set by the likes of Clive Lewis MP, who suggested that
the working classes welcomed the Tories in much the same way the forest
welcomes the axe. This is pitying tone
is common. The poor old working class has
spurned the socialists who were desperate to help them! In favour of the Tories who would exploit and
suppress them! Those poor deluded fools!
These must be comforting thoughts for those reluctant to
look in the mirror and ask, “Hang on, did we
perhaps get something wrong?”
The Tories must be delighted by this unreflectiveness.
Brexit is now likely in six weeks’ time. It is a step in the dark, of course, although
one a self-governing nation has no reason to fear.
I mentioned earlier the efforts of the Remain Ultras to
block Brexit in Parliament. I thought - no, prayed - at the time that though their
tactics might be sound, their strategy
might be their undoing. So it has
proved, and I now wonder whether I should be thanking Starmer, Grieve et al for
their idiocy.
For consider this. Labour
could have let Mrs May’s deal through, perhaps by abstaining. Corbyn would have gained some credit for
statesmanship, and Labour Leavers would have been grateful. Boris Johnson would have got nowhere near
power, and in 2020 Corbyn would have fought a general election against Mrs May,
whom he might well have beaten. Instead by
stymieing May, Labour made her position unsustainable. They guaranteed a Tory leadership election
which Johnson was bound to win. Johnson
would threaten a No Deal Brexit, the EU would take him seriously, the
Withdrawal Agreement would be reopened, a new deal would be agreed which (unlike
May’s deal) did not tie the UK to the EU’s apron strings, and eventually they would have to fight Johnson in a general
election.
All this was utterly predictable, and all of it came to
pass. Thus Labour’s Remainers ensured a
harder Brexit deal and an election they were likely to lose. As I say, their tactics were brilliant, but
their strategy was idiotic. Effectively,
they grabbed the tiger by its tail. This
immobilises the tiger for a while, but they longer you hang on the angrier the
tiger gets until in the end it turns round and bites your arm off.
In this analogy the tiger is the electorate.
