Wednesday 22 January 2014

Ed Miliband - man of principle? #2

A couple of years ago Labour were telling us that there'd be no recovery under Osborne's Plan A.  Then when it turned out there'd been no double dip recession (let alone a triple dip) and that the economy was growing strongly, Miliband told us we were having the wrong sort of recovery. Now when it turns out that Britain's economy is one of the fastest growing in the industrialised world, he is telling us there's a cost of living crisis because wages are low and stagnating.

Miliband is right about wages, and he's been right for quite a few years, certainly since well before the 2010 general election.  He didn't seem quite so concerned about it then.

It must be rather galling for the Tories to hear this latest attack on its handling of the economy.  During the Blair / Brown years Britain accepted about 800,000 migrants from Eastern Europe.  The Government's own figures show that over 50% of new jobs created went to people born outside the UK.  In London the figure is over 80%.  Leaving aside the cost to the UK of these hard-working young people in terms of health, education, housing and general infrastructure (not to mention the cost of keeping on benefits the British people - many with brown skins - they displace from the labour market), there is also a cost in terms of wage levels.

If you increase the pool of available labour, the cost for employers of acquiring staff rises less quickly than it otherwise would have done.  That's why the CBI is in favour of immigration.  Businessmen know that, as with any commodity, you increase the supply and the cost tends to go down.

In other words Labour's decision to allow the citizens of new EU nations to work here in 2004 is partly responsible for lower wages, and therefore for the cost of living crisis for which they are now blaming the Tories.

Miliband's solution to this problem his party helped create is to urge companies to pay their staff more.  But as many economists have pointed out, the only consequence of this would be fewer people in work. Companies become less competitive, they push their prices up, they sell fewer products and have to lay off staff.  Thus the people who keep their jobs benefit, but others get pushed onto the dole, where the state has to pay for them.  Increased wealth for some rather than for all hardly seems like a Labour policy.

Miliband's idea, like his plan for an energy price freeze, is economically illiterate.  Which raises the question why he is saying these things.  As I keep pointing out, the Labour leader is said to have taught economics at Harvard.  I'm presuming then that he understands the mechanics of supply and demand.  The only explanation I can think of for his pushing policies that defy economic credibility is that he is a cynical opportunist.

Undoubtedly most people don't know enough about economics to understand why wages might stagnate, and why it's so hard to get them to rise again when you are importing a work force at the same time.  This looks like naked populism by Miliband - I suspect he knows these policies won't work, but he also knows that a lot of people like the sound of them.

I still believe that Labour will win the next election.  But judging by the increasingly desperate implausibility of his policy initiatives, I'm not sure Ed Miliband does.

War crimes, Syria and Tony Blair

The news that a young man recently tried to carry out a citizen's arrest on Tony Blair for war crimes, reported in the Grauniad this morning, is replete with ironies, coming as it does amidst the outrage over the 50,000 photographs smuggled out of Syria showing systematic torture by the government.

Last summer the UK Government tried to get Parliament to back the principle of intervention in Syria.  Their attempt was unsuccessful, because there were enough Tory rebels who sided with Labour.  At the time I quoted Lord Ashdown, who wrote, "MPs cheered last night.  Assad and Putin this morning".

I realise that deciding to intervene in a foreign country is a difficult and problematic thing to do.  There is an enormous amount of public anger still over our little Iraqi adventure.  It's that anger that motivates people like the young man who tried to arrest Blair.

These people have forgotten however that Saddam Hussein killed a lot of his own citizens too, that his successors would certainly have carried on doing the same thing, and that without intervention they would still be doing it now.  Iraq is not perfect, but it is a good deal better than it would have been if Saddam, then his sons, then some other Ba'ath party hard man, had been allowed to keep their foot on the neck of the Iraqi people.

And yet it is the wilful blindness and partiality of this section of the public which made President Obama and then British MPs hestitate last summer.  It may be increasingly clear that events have proved them wrong, but they are still shouting the loudest.  We have moved beyond denial but are still languishing in the anger stage.

However as I wrote at the time, even a decision to do nothing has its consequences.  We are now seeing in Syria what those consequences are.  They are written on the emaciated and disfigured bodies of those unfortunate enough to have fallen into the hands of President Assad's torture squads.

I'd like to see the chap who tried to arrest Blair in a London restaurant flick through those 50,000 images of the dead.  It might teach him what war crimes really look like.


Thursday 16 January 2014

Francois Hollande, Paul Daniels and the weaker sexes

The fine mess into which French president Francois Hollande has got himself with a young actress (OK, she's 41, but from my lofty vantage point that's still young - she can probably climb the stairs without holding on to the rail), invites all sorts of thoughts about the stupidity of the middle-aged male.

But spare a thought for the stupidity of the woman.  Of all the men with whom actress Julie Gayet could have elected to play the role of Other Woman, she goes for, what, a penguin with a face like a potato, beady eyes and dyed hair a la Berlusconi?

Would Ms Gayet have looked at Hollande twice if he'd been a dustman? Not on your life.

"So what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?", Caroline Aherne asked Debbie McGee on live TV.

Unfortunately re-runs of Mrs Merton are not currently available in French.

Friday 10 January 2014

Mark Duggan - care in the community

I once made the mistake, in front of a friend who comes from Tottenham via Accra in Ghana, of referring to "the black community".  I can still see him now, leaning back in his chair and laughing uproariously.  "There ain't no such thing as the black community", he said. And of course when you think about it, it's true. Just as there's no such thing as "the angling community" or "the mountaineering community".

It's funny then how in the wake of the Mark Duggan inquest "community" is one word I think I've heard more than any other. That and "justice" perhaps.  And with "community" comes the word "leader".  "Community leaders" tend not to be elected people like parish councillors, but the self-appointed who like the sound of their own voices.  They are often encouraged by government and local authorities, desperate to find some way of getting a purchase on the part of the population which doesn't have the same skin colour they do.

Usually "community leaders" are mediocre and self-serving people of the Bernie Grant or Jessie Jackson type who prefer the attention and money which being the link between authority and the huddled masses confers to a low wage job somewhere in the service industries.  I guess you can't blame them.

Community leaders have been much in evidence in the last 48 hours.  I heard one of them, Stafford Scott, say that the inquest verdict was a joke, that "everyone knows what's happening to this country" and that David Cameron was to blame.  Really?

What you didn't hear community leaders saying was, "Mark Duggan was a bad man.  He wasn't carrying a gun to hand it in to the police.  The community is better off without him". Why is that?  Well partly perhaps because their own status and position depends on articulating the fears and prejudices of their peers. Understandable, but not exactly leadership.  But also because part of community leaders' function seems to be to perpetuate a narrative of victimhood.

I heard one poignant vox pop post-Duggan on Wednesday night.  It was a young black man who said, "There ain't nothing up here. No jobs. Nothing".  Now I lived in Hackney for four years and in London for sixteen. As I recall Tottenham Hale tube station is about seven stops from Oxford Circus. That's about fifteen or twenty minutes travel at the most.

Recent visits to London suggest the capital is booming. The people who serve you in pubs, restaurants and coffee shops are overwhelmingly from Europe or Eastern Europe, confirming anecdotally what figures show to be true, namely that we imported a workforce during the Blair / Brown years instead of getting British people, many of them with brown skins, off the dole.

But you can't just blame European immigration. "Community leaders" contribute to a narrative of helplessness.  Complaints that no jobs are available a twenty minute tube ride away from the centre of the richest city on earth outside North America are utterly ridiculous. The truth is that jobs are there, but starting working life for little money in an unglamorous circumstances is at odds with "the community"'s self-mythology.

A culture which glamourises guns, violence and wealth, with the occasional detour denigrating women along the way, is not going to encourage young people to wait tables or serve behind a till.  A culture which legitimises absent fathers is not going to give young men decent role models.  The problems of places like Tottenham are complex, but they start from within.

Wednesday 8 January 2014

Justice for Mark Duggan

A quick search through this blog would reveal that its author is not much impressed by the police.  All my experience, as a former lawyer and as a citizen, is that when they are not corrupt, racist and dishonest, they are incompetent and lazy.  The following remarks about tonight's verdict by the Mark Duggan inquest jury need to be read in that context.

I'm not at all surprised that the jury found Duggan to have been lawfully killed.  Or that it found the gun discovered 20 feet away wrapped in a sock was thrown by Duggan before the police fired the fatal shots.  If someone told me that the police had put the gun there to justify their actions that wouldn't surprise me either (although I'd be wondering why they chose not to put it in the taxi, which would have been the obvious place).  I believe the police to be capable of pretty much anything.

And yet I think Mr Duggan's family and his lawyers are protesting too much.

It's not surprising that his family now like to portray Duggan as a good man, a pillar of the community rather than a violent and feared drug dealer.  That would be the inevitable reaction of people who have lost someone they loved.  But I'd like to ask them (from a safe distance), whether they believed Duggan had a gun with him in the taxi.  If not, well, the evidence is against them.  But if he was, what do they think he was doing with it? And do they not think that someone carrying a gun around with them can't have too many complaints if the police decide that person might just be carrying it to hurt someone else?

I was listening to Radio 5 when the news broke, and the station was clearly caught expecting an Unlawful Killing verdict, since it had prepared pre-recorded interviews with Duggan's mother and with a friend, and also played an actor-voiced exchange between Leslie Thomas, the family's barrister, and a witness who described seeing the killing and said it looked like an execution.

The station did not however re-enact cross-examination of the same witness, reported in the Guardian, in which it was put to him that he had changed his story since he first gave a statement.  Why not?  I'm guessing because it thought the jury would accept the witness's evidence.  Instead it went live to a reporter in Tottenham who was presumably hoping something would kick off down there.  It also broadcast part of a statement by Marcia Willis Stewart, the family's solicitor, who declared it was a "murder" of "an unarmed man", a remark that is libellous if false and inflammatory in any event.  Radio 5 stopped broadcasting the statement after the "murder" remark. In the circumstances Ms Stewart may well have committed a public order offence.  Certainly she brought her profession into disrepute.

The BBC's reporter, Danny Shaw I think, said that the crucial question was whether Duggan was holding the gun when he was shot.  This statement, repeated later on PM, is wrong.  In the context of the riots which started after Duggan's killing it's also irresponsible.  The crucial question was whether the firearms officer reasonably believed Duggan to be carrying a gun.  This distinction is crucial to understanding of the jury's verdict, and failure to understand it isn't just confined to the BBC.  Diane Abbott has also declared herself baffled by the verdict. That's a shame, because in fact, whether right or not, it's clear and readily comprehensible to anyone of a modest intelligence.

The family complained essentially that the police had imposed their own version of justice on Duggan.  But consider this.  There is an inquest, held over two months at enormous public expense.  Witnesses are compelled to come, and are cross-examined.  The Coroner sums up.  The jury goes out.  There is a verdict. In damning the jury's verdict the Duggans are essentially saying, This isn't the kind of justice we wanted.  It didn't give the result we wanted. Ironically, they are guilty of exactly the same thing they accuse the police of having done, which is to say demanding justice to suit their personal needs.  But that isn't the way justice works.  Justice stands outside the needs of the individual, be they police officers or drug dealers.  It even stands, so far as possible, outside the needs of the state.  A fair process fairly applied is all that can be asked of the justice system, and I haven't heard any suggestion, from Duggan's supporters or from anyone else, that this Inquest failed on either count.  At least not until the jury delivered a verdict they didn't like.

It does not seem to have occurred to Duggan's family that he might have been a drug-dealing gang member who was carrying a gun at a time when he was shot down by a policeman (who knew such things might happen?)  Or that, whatever their own devastating loss, the rest of us might be better off without him.

You may say that we don't want a society where people are shot down by the police in cold blood.  On the whole I agree.  But where the police are pretty sure those people have a gun on or about their person, I'm willing to make an exception.

Michael Gove and the re-writing of history

How to celebrate, if that's the word, the centenary of 1914?  Michael Gove seems to think our perspective on the Great War has been skewed by pacifist nonsense like the famous episode of Blackadder, one only of a number of fictions, from Robert Graves's Goodbye to All That to Oh What a Lovely War, which have peddled the "lions led by donkeys" line.

It so happens that I am in the middle of reading Niall Ferguson's The Pity of War and am therefore slightly less ill-informed than usual on this topic.

Ferguson is a strange writer.  His principal motive seems not to be to find out what happened, but to point out where earlier historians got it wrong.  This contrarianism can be a tiresome end in itself, and moreover its methods sometimes seem strained.  Here he is on events in 1918:

"It was not Allied tactical superiority which ended the war . . . it was a crisis of German morale"(p.313).  "A tired and sick man after the failure of his offensives, Ludendorff jumped to the conclusion that the army would collapse if he did not secure an armistice; it seems more likely that his desire for an armistice was what made it collapse".  

The neat paradoxical inversion is typical of the style.  But Ferguson doesn't show how Ludendorff's personal troubles communicated themselves to rank and file German soldiers many miles away.  It seems unlikely that the figurehead of Germany's Junker class was articulating his personal troubles to subordinates in the touchy-feely Californian manner.

Then there is the vexed issue of surrender.  Ferguson shows that after the failure of Ludendorff's 1918 offensive, German troops began to surrender in large numbers.  He attributes this partly to the dawning realisation that it was safe to do so.  This may seem surprising, since we fondly imagine the British treated their prisoners well, but Ferguson sets out in some detail how the killing of prisoners was routinely carried out on both sides.  What he does not do however is show whether there was any policy change in 1918 by the British and French towards prisoners, and if so how that change was communicated to the Germans. Strange.

As Ferguson must know, asserting something without evidence is OK for a blogger but not good enough for a historian.

Where Ferguson really does score is in showing just how much better Germans were at killing our chaps than the reverse.  Undoubtedly we started the war badly and slowly got better as it went on (developing the tank, learning how to co-ordinate artillery and infantry), but even then the Germans were still better than we were.  They lost because their ordinary soldiers weren't in the end willing to put up with the horrendous conditions any more, preferring to surrender than fight.

Does this make the Great War a glorious episode in British history?  Well no.  To read yourself back into the mind of politicians a hundred years ago is to find that the great European powers were punch-drunk on territorial expansionism.  The conflict was as much about Imperial ambitions as about Gavriol Princip and the Archduke Franz Ferdinand.  The Germans wanted ports on the Channel coast of France.  Had Britain stayed aloof France would have been overrun.  You can argue until you're blue in the face that such an outcome might have been better than the Nazism which followed Versailles, but politicians have to deal with the way things are now.  They are not gifted with foresight.  Britain's involvement was bungled, but also understandable and even necessary.

As for Blackadder, I watched the offending episode again the other night.  I have always loved it.  But Rowan Atkinson's dead-eyed and doomed soldier is an attempt to impose today's values and knowledge on an era which had the luxury of neither.

Tuesday 7 January 2014

RIP Simon Hoggart. And the Christmas Round Robin.

So farewell then Simon Hoggart.  Like most right-thinking people I mourn the death of the Guardian's great parliamentary sketch writer.

But here are two views you won't read in the hagiographies which inevitably accompany his passing.

One, Hoggart didn't really write about politics.  He wrote about personalities.  He was at his most amusing when describing the way politicians talked or looked.  His most memorable pieces concerned things like the way Sir Peter Tapsell spoke, or Michael Fabricant's wig.  Without wishing to sound sanctimonious, I'd rather read someone laying into what politicians do.  Satire of the type employed by Private Eye is much cleverer, much more useful and much funnier.  We think poorly enough of politicians anyway without someone like Hoggart mocking their personal qualities.

Two, Hoggart has single-handedly killed the Round Robin letter.  Ten years ago no Christmas card opening was complete unless accompanied by the exultant shout of "It's a Round Robin!".  At which point every sentient being would gather round to read the smug, complacent and vainglorious outpourings of friends and relatives.  Hoggart used to publish a selection of these in the Guardian early in the New Year, and latterly produced two compilations, of which The Cat That Could Open the Fridge was one.

My favourite shocker was the one about the writer's offspring who had "spent the summer on a yacht in the Ionian Sea with some other beautiful young people from Balliol, and beat the Poet Laureate's son at Scrabble!"  

If you went round with an axe and beat the sender to a bloody pulp, no jury would convict.

Where are the Round Robins now?  The public ridicule Hoggart heaped on them as made even the least self-aware keep schtum.  We had only two in 2013, one from some very nice people who write in full knowledge of the medium's absurdity, the other from a Lib Dem councillor in Watford who wouldn't know what self-awareness was if it landed on her head from a great height.  We are all poorer as a result.